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Update on the heat, thunderstorms, and potential early August tropical trouble:

- The details for the Long Island forecast are below, but today will be more humid with a lower temperature than yesterday, but the heat index will still be almost the same with readings in the upper 90's to near 100 degrees. Scattered strong thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon, but the best chance is in New England. Some storms can be strong to severe with downpours, damaging wind gusts, and hail, with a tornado also possible in New England.

- Less humid tomorrow, but still hot with a slight chance of a late afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm, but the best chance is north and west of NYC (see 7th image), and then it will be sunny, hot, and a little more humid on Saturday. Sunday looks to be oppressively hot with high humidity, so I've put a Heat Advisory for my forecast, even though the NWS hasn't issued it yet.

- Showers and strong thunderstorms for Monday, mostly in the afternoon and into and through the evening.

- Some of the Euro ensembles are showing a potential tropical storm or hurricane right at the beginning of August heading possibly towards the southeastern United States (see image below).


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

***Heat Advisory for all of Long Island until 8 PM this evening for heat index temperatures in the upper 90's.***​

​Today: Mostly sunny, hot, very humid, and becoming partly cloudy and breezy with a chance of a mid to late afternoon shower or strong thunderstorm with highs in the low 90's in Nassau and northwestern Suffolk (heat index around 100 degrees) and in the upper 80's to near 90 elsewhere in Suffolk (heat index in the mid to upper 90's), but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S to SSW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon with gusts over 25 mph.

Tonight: A chance of a scattered early evening shower or thunderstorm and then becoming mostly clear and remaining humid with lows in the low to mid 70's. Wind out of the W at around 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and hot with moderate humidity with a slight chance of a late PM thunderstorm with highs in the low 90's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the WNW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the SW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: Slight chance of an early evening shower or thunderstorm and then becoming mostly clear and humid with lows in the mid 70's in Nassau and low 70's in Suffolk. Wind out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and hot with moderate to high humidity with highs in the low 90's ( mid 90's in northern Nassau), but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the WNW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and SSW at 10 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and oppressively hot/humid with highs in the low to possibly mid 90's with a heat index around 99 to 104 degrees, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind generally out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy, very warm and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening with highs in the upper 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the WSW at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny and less humid with highs in the mid 80's. Wind out of the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with moderate humidity with highs in the mid 80's. Wind out of the N at 5 mph in the morning and then out of the S at 10 mph in the afternoon.


- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd image: Projected heat index at Noon today from the HRRR model

- 3rd image: Severe thunderstorm potential for today and tonight from the SPC

- 4th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS Model Blend

- 5th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles

- 6th and 7th images: Future radar from the HRRR model for 4 PM today and 6 PM tomorrow, respectively

- 8th image: Projected storm tracks for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles










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