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Update on the L.I. forecast, thunderstorms, rapidly plummeting temps, wind, and the Sunday storm:

- The details for Long Island are in the forecast below, but today will be really nice! The strong cold front will bring rain and possibly a thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon into early evening from west to east. The thunderstorms will weaken once they get into western Suffolk, but any storm could contain wind gusts up to 45 mph.

- Temperatures will drop rapidly behind the cold front tomorrow evening as temperatures will drop from the mid 50's to the mid to upper 30's from around 5 PM to 10 PM on Long Island. There will also be wind gusts up to 35 mph overnight and over 40 mph on Thursday. Wind chill temperatures should bottom out in the low 20's early Thursday morning on Long Island.

- Regarding the late Saturday night into Sunday storm, there is still uncertainty in the track and how quickly it intensifies, but it may not get really strong until it's in the Gulf of Maine. For Long Island, it generally looks like 1 to 1.5 inches of rain with the highest amounts in eastern Suffolk. It's possible that most of the rain could be done by mid-afternoon on Sunday, but those are details that will have to be worked out later this week. Max wind gusts will depend on how strong the storm is when it's at its closest approach.

- Next week from Monday to Thursday looks nice!


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:


Today: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60's to around 70 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Breezy in the afternoon with wind gusts up to 20 mph from the WSW to SSW.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and mild with lows around 50 degrees. Wind out of the S to SSW at around 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy in the morning with a slight chance of a shower, and then showers likely with possibly a thunderstorm (best chance being in Nassau) with gusty winds between around 3 PM and 6 PM from west to east in association with the cold front. Highs in the low 60's. Becoming windy in the afternoon and evening with gusts up to 30 mph from the SSW.

Tomorrow night: Showers ending in the evening and then becoming mostly clear with temperatures dropping rapidly into the 30's by around 10 PM. Windy with gusts up to 30 mph from the WNW. Overnight lows in the low to mid 30's.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, windy, and much cooler with highs only around 50 degrees. Wind gusts up to 40 mph from the WNW.

Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy with highs around 60 degrees but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind gusts up to 25 mph from the W to WNW.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning with increasing clouds late in the day with highs mostly in the mid 60's.

Sunday: Rain possibly tapering off to showers and ending by late afternoon. Breezy with highs in the upper 50's.

Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 60's.


- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 2nd image: Simulated radar for 3 PM tomorrow from the HRRR model. The NAM is later and weaker with the thunderstorms.

- 3rd image: Projected wind chill temperatures for 7 AM Thursday from the NAM model

- 4th image: Projected storm locations and strengths for 2 PM Sunday from the Euro ensemble members

- 5th image: Projected snowfall through 8 PM Thursday from the NWS

- 6th image: Severe weather potential for tomorrow into tomorrow evening from the Storm Prediction Center

- 7th to 9th images: Projected precipitation through 8 PM Monday from the Euro, Euro ensemble mean, and Weather Prediction Center

- 10th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend














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