Update on the potential storm next week and the Long Island forecast:
I will probably have a post later on this being the 25th anniversary of the truly epic Blizzard of '96.
The Euro and Canadian models both show some rain and snow for Long Island for the middle of next week, but the GFS and GFS-Parallel (soon to be newly upgraded GFS) both have the storm slide off the mid-Atlantic coast with no precipitation for Long Island. Considering the usual offshore bias of the GFS, there is probably a pretty good chance that the storm comes farther north. However, precipitation type will be determined by the track and strength of the storm. At this point, it doesn't look to be overly strong. Also, there isn't a lot of ensemble support for a snowstorm on Long Island with only 6 of the 50 Euro ensemble members showing 2 inches or more of snow.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Thursday): Mostly sunny and breezy with highs in the low 40's and wind gusts up to 20 mph from the NNW.
Tonight: Mostly clear and cold with lows mostly in the mid 20's in Suffolk and upper 20's in Nassau.
Tomorrow (Friday): Mostly sunny with highs around 41 degrees with a light breeze at around 10 mph from the north.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy with highs in the upper 30's. Wind from the north at around 15 mph.
Sunday: Sunny with highs in the upper 30's.
Monday: Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 30's.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of light rain or wet snow by early afternoon with highs around 40 degrees.
Tuesday night: 40% chance of rain or snow with lows in the low 30's. Some light snow accumulation is possible by Wednesday morning, but there is a lot of uncertainty.
- 1st image: Projected storm locations for 1 AM next Wednesday from the Euro ensemble members
- 2nd image: Map from the Euro for 1 AM next Wednesday
- 3rd image: Map from the Canadian for 7 PM next Wednesday
- 4th image: Projected precipitation for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center
- 5th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
- 6th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend