Update on the potential upcoming winter storm for next week:
Firstly, the potential southern stream storm for Monday that I was posting about has trended farther north, which is why I was saying to not give up on it. While it will be weaker and won't have a lot of cold air to work with, it could bring rain as far north as Long Island on Monday.
As for the potential big snowstorm on Wednesday into Thursday morning, not too much has changed overnight. The track and strength will be crucial in determining the rain/snow line. While there is still a good chance of having some or mostly snow on Long Island, the best chance right now appears to be just inland. The Euro ensembles are still pretty bullish on snow though (but not quite as bullish as the run from yesterday) with the ensemble mean showing 6 inches for northern Nassau and 4 inches for southeastern Suffolk. The main Euro run has a rain/snow mix for Long Island with heavier snow totals just to the north and west. The Canadian and GFS overnight runs have a weaker storm a little farther offshore, so they are showing all snow on Long Island, but not heavy amounts, but the new GFS run is coming out now and showing a little stronger storm with all snow for Long Island. There will continue to be shifts for the next several days, so stay tuned. See all images below for the complete picture.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Friday): Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 50's. a little breezy in the afternoon with gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible from the SSW to SW.
Tonight: Increasing clouds with some patchy fog possible well after midnight. Lows in the low to mid 40's.
Tomorrow (Saturday): Cloudy and mild with scattered showers developing by around mid-morning and continuing into mid or late afternoon with fairly light winds at less than 10 mph. Highs in the mid 50's.
Tomorrow night: Cloudy and fairly mild with only a 30% chance of a couple of light passing showers in the evening, increasing to 50% towards and just after midnight. Lows in the upper 40's.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy in the morning and partly sunny in the afternoon and mild with highs in the upper 50's. The wind will be out of the SW in the morning and the W in the afternoon with gusts up to 15 or 20 mph in the afternoon.
Monday: Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon from the southern stream system that has trended farther north. Cooler with highs in the mid 40's.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 40's.
Wednesday: Chance of rain developing in the morning or early afternoon, possibly mixing with and changing to snow by late afternoon or evening. Highs in the upper 30's. Depending on the track, timing, and strength of the storm, accumulating snow is possible in the evening into early Thursday morning.
- 1st and 2nd images: Projected snowfall through 7 PM next Thursday from the Euro ensemble mean and Euro, respectively
- 3rd image: Probability of greater than 3 inches of snow through 7 PM next Thursday from the Euro ensembles
- 4th image: Projected storm locations and pressures for 1 AM next Thursday from the Euro ensemble members
- 5th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
- 6th image: Map from the Euro for 1 AM next Thursday
- 7th image: Map from the GFS for 7 PM next Wednesday
- 8th image: Projected precipitation through 7 AM Sunday from the Weather Prediction Center
- 9th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles
- 10th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend