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Update on the rain, very warm stretch, and the tropics becoming a little more concerning:

- Showers are approaching Long Island early this morning, but they don't look very impressive on radar. There will be another chance later this afternoon and then a lesser chance tomorrow afternoon. Some of you will again be disappointed. It will also be very humid today into tomorrow night.

- A very warm to hot stretch from Wednesday to Friday before a cold front brings a chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into early evening, but the timing still has to be fine-tuned. As of now, the weekend looks pretty good.

- The tropics are starting to slowly come alive and the 15-day maps from the Euro and GFS ensembles are starting to look more concerning for early September, but nothing is imminent right now, so we have plenty of time to watch how it evolves.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Humid with periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms with the potential for a heavy downpour with the best coverage in the morning and again later in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the E at 5 to 10 mph in the morning then SE at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Cloudy and humid with a 40% chance of widely scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm with lows near 70 degrees. Wind out of the S at 5 to 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy and humid with a chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind mostly out of the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy with a chance for a stray evening shower with lows in the upper 60's. Wind out of the W at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and moderately humid with highs in the mid 80's. Wind out of the NW at 5 mph in the morning and then out of the SW at 10 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and moderately humid with highs in the upper 80's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the NNW at 5 mph in the morning and then out of the SSW at 10 mph in the afternoon.

Friday: Partly cloudy with moderate to high humidity with a chance for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms with highs in the mid to upper 80's. Wind out of the W at 5 mph in the morning and then out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with moderate humidity with highs in the mid 80's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the N at 5 mph in the morning and then out of the SE at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.


- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd and 3rd images: 15-day maps for the tropics from the Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles, respectively

- 4th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS Model Blend






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