Update on the rain/wind storm, cold weekend, and potential storm next week:
Winter begins at 5:02 this morning EST.
There aren't really any changes to the strong cold front that will come through the northeast on Christmas Eve at night with heavy rain and strong wind gusts. There should at least be gusts over 45 mph on Long Island, and possibly up to 55 mph. Temperatures will drop sharply behind the cold front, but I'm not expecting any snow or a flash freeze on Long Island. More details are in the forecast below.
It will then be a sunny and cold weekend, followed by a potential storm system for the early to middle part of next week. There is a lot of uncertainty still as a blocking pattern should be in place. Most of the models aren't really showing too much, but the Euro has a big snowstorm for central to northern New England next Tuesday night into Wednesday (see 4th image). There are only a few Euro ensemble members showing a snowstorm for Long Island, so the odds are low for now, but let's see how it evolves over the next few days.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Monday): Mostly cloudy with a few breaks of sun possible later this morning into early afternoon with highs in the low 40's. The wind will be light at 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight: Cloudy with a 60% chance of some showers between around 10 PM and 6 AM. There is a slight chance that it could be mixed with wet snow showers at times, especially northern Nassau. Lows in the mid 30's.
Tomorrow (Tuesday): A chance of early morning rain or wet snow showers and then becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon with highs in the low 40's. Breezy in the afternoon with wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph from the WNW.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with highs around 39 to 42 degrees with light winds.
Thursday (Christmas Eve): Cloudy and mild with a chance of some showers by late afternoon, but with a better chance of a steady rain developing sometime in the evening or at night, depending on the timing, as a strong cold front approaches. Highs will be in the mid 50's with a S to SSE wind up to 25 mph. There is the potential for heavy rain and strong wind gusts over 50 mph overnight into early morning on Christmas with temperatures reaching 60 degrees before the cold front moves through. Total rainfall should be 1 to 2 inches.
Friday (Christmas Day): Early morning rain and wind ending possibly around mid-morning from west to east with temperatures dropping throughout the day from the mid to upper 40's in the morning into the low 30's by late afternoon or early evening as the wind shifts to the W behind the front with gusts of 20 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and very cold with highs in the low 30's. It will also be breezy.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold with highs in the mid 30's.
- 1st image: Map from the Euro for 7 AM on Christmas
- 2nd image: Maximum projected wind gusts in knots through 7 PM on Christmas from the Euro. Actual gusts will likely be somewhat lower.
- 3rd image: Projected 24-hour snowfall from 1 PM on Christmas Eve to 1 PM on Christmas from the Euro
- 4th image: Map from the Euro for 1 AM next Wednesday (December 30th)
- 5th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
- 6th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend