Update on the rain/wind with potential thunder:
The timing looks to be slightly later for Long Island with the rain arriving tomorrow between around 5 PM and 7 PM from west to east. When the main squall line arrives, there will be a period of moderate to heavy rain with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph and possibly thunder. Brief gusts over 50 mph can't be ruled out. The rain should end from west to east between around 11 PM and 1 AM.
The following is from the National Weather Service covering the Tri-state area:
A strong low level jet, up to 70 kt, will be moving into the waters south of Long Island and into the coastal region late in the afternoon. Also surface winds will be increasing as the cold front near the region. Most unstable cape will be increasing somewhat and with strong forcing CAMS are indicating a narrow line of convection just ahead of the front. Moderate to heavy showers, possibly accompanied by thunder will bring these higher winds to the surface. Added slight chance for thunder late afternoon into the early evening. Gusts may briefly approach wind advisory criteria, near 45 mph, in the vicinity of the strong low level jet, mainly along the coast of southwestern and eastern Suffolk county. With the brief nature of the gusts and timing uncertainty will not issue a wind advisory at this time. Gusty winds behind the cold front will remain strong, but also below advisory levels.
- 1st image: Simulated future radar from the NAM for 10:00 tomorrow night
- 2nd image: Projected wind gusts and direction from the NAM for 9:00 tomorrow night
- 3rd image: Maximum projected wind gusts for tomorrow into tomorrow night from the National Weather Service