Update on the rainstorm, the tropics, and the Long Island forecast:
While there is still some uncertainty in exactly where the highest rainfall totals will be, there is a good chance for eastern Suffolk to get over 2 inches of rain, mostly from late this afternoon into tomorrow morning. I have included some of the rain maps below so you have the general idea. It's possible that a Flash Flood Watch will be issued later this afternoon for eastern Suffolk. There will be a sharp east-west gradient in the rainfall totals as you can see below. There is also the potential for 35 mph gusts in eastern Suffolk.
Regarding the tropics, there are 2 areas in the eastern Atlantic that the National Hurricane Center is giving a low chance for tropical development within the next 5 days. I have included the map of the Euro ensembles for the next 15 days, and while some do develop a hurricane, overall it's not a very strong signal, so there's nothing to worry about right now.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
**There is the potential for over 2 inches of rain in eastern Suffolk from late this afternoon into tomorrow morning**
Today: Cloudy with a slight chance of some late afternoon showers, mostly in Suffolk, with highs in the mid 70's. Wind generally out of the E to ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight: Rainy and breezy, especially for eastern Suffolk, with lows in the low to mid 60's. Wind out of the NE at 10 to 15 mph with some gusts over 30 mph in eastern Suffolk.
Tomorrow: Morning showers, especially in Suffolk, and then mostly cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70's. Wind mostly out of the N at around 10 mph.
Friday: Sunny and warmer with highs in the low to mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the W at 5 mph in the morning and out of the SSW at 10 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy and more humid with a slight chance of an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm with highs in the low to mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S to SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and moderately humid with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with highs in the mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Variable wind direction at around 5 to 10 mph.
- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 2nd to 6th images: Rainfall maps from the HREF ensemble mean, Euro, NAM, Weather Prediction Center, and HRRR, respectively
- 7th image: From the National Hurricane Center
- 8th image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days
- 9th images: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend