Update on the snowstorm, the Long Island forecast, and a brief look ahead:
The 1st image shows the snow map of additional accumulations after 4 AM from the National Weather Service. For Long Island, with the updated Winter Storm Warnings, the National Weather Service is forecasting 8 to 15 inches of additional accumulations for Nassau and the western half of Suffolk. For eastern Suffolk, they are forecasting 5 to 11 inches of additional accumulations. Looking at the NAM model, it appears that mixing with sleet and rain will begin to come into play starting early this afternoon along the south shore and fairly quickly working its way north and west through Long Island this afternoon into early evening. There should be a period of heavy snow generally from 8 AM to 2 PM with snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour. There are more details in the forecast below. Some additional light snow is possible late tomorrow into tomorrow night.
Looking ahead, it will be milder with some showers on Friday for Long Island and southern to central New England with some snow possibly for northern New England. There is uncertainty, but there will be a system to watch later this coming weekend. The overnight Canadian and GFS runs show snow for Long Island, but the Euro wasn't nearly as bullish as its run yesterday afternoon. I will be watching this and updating on it, starting this afternoon. Either way, very cold air will arrive behind the potential storm, so it looks very cold for the early to middle part of next week.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Monday): Snow, heavy at times from around 8 AM to 2 PM with blizzard-like conditions. However, sleet and rain could begin mixing in after 1 PM, especially along the south shore and east end. The rain/snow line will continue to move northwestward through the afternoon, so all of Long Island should be rain by around 7 PM. Very windy with gusts up to 50 mph from the NE. Highs in the low 30's in Nassau and western Suffolk and mid 30's for eastern Suffolk. Wind gusts could exceed 55 mph in southeastern Suffolk.
Tonight: Any sleet or snow early will become periods of light rain or possible freezing rain for northern Nassau. Windy with gusts up to 45 mph from the NNE, with some gusts greater than 50 mph for southeastern Suffolk, but diminishing after midnight. Temperatures in the low to mid 30's. Total accumulations by late Monday night of 6 to 12 inches for eastern Suffolk, 10 to 16 inches for most of central Suffolk to southeast Nassau, and 14 to 18 inches for northwest Nassau.
Tomorrow (Tuesday): Periods of light rain or drizzle becoming snow showers by late afternoon. Windy with gusts up to 30 mph from the north. Highs in the mid 30's.
Tomorrow night: Periods of light snow with an inch or so of snow possible. Wind gusts up to 25 mph from the NNW. Lows in the mid to upper 20's.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 30's. Wind gusts up to 20 mph from the NW.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30's.
Friday: Cloudy with a 70% chance of showers. Highs in the low 40's.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs in the low 40's.
- 1st image: Projected additional snowfall after 4 AM and through 7 PM Wednesday from the National Weather Service
- 2nd image: Projected additional snowfall from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM Wednesday from the National Weather Service NY
- 3rd to 6th images: Simulated future radar from the NAM for today at Noon, 3 PM, and 7 PM, and tomorrow at 8 AM
- 7th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend