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Update on the storm early next week as uncertainty remains:

Firstly, light snow is moving through Long Island now with a coating by me already in northern Nassau, but it's moving through quickly. Also, precipitation will be hanging around eastern MA for a while, including even a little trough extending to the big offshore storm later on Friday, which could bring some snow there. As for the Arctic blast, it's going to be intense, especially from late tomorrow night into Saturday, although it will still be very cold early Sunday morning, but the wind will have died down. Wind chill temperatures will drop below zero on Long Island Friday night into early Saturday morning.


Ok, now for the storm, and well, it's complicated. It looks like a long duration event from late Sunday night into Tuesday night or Wednesday morning in the northeast. For Long Island, as of now, and this will change, it looks like snow, possibly mixing with and changing to rain for a while on Monday, and then possibly going back to snow on Tuesday. Also, if you look at the images below, you will see the uncertainty based on the spread in the location and track of the storm as shown by the Euro ensemble members. That is why some ensemble members show less than an inch of snow for Long Island, and some show around 9 to 12 inches. It's just too soon to be confident in any given solution, which is to be expected at this range.


Later next week into next weekend it will turn milder with some rain for most of the northeast, but then there should be more snow chances towards mid-February.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:


Today (Wednesday): Early morning light snow and then cloudy with a slight chance of a rain or snow shower in eastern Suffolk in the afternoon. Highs close to 40 degrees.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with lows in the mid to upper 20's.

Tomorrow (Thursday): Mostly cloudy in the morning and then becoming mostly sunny by afternoon. Highs in the low 30's and becoming windy by mid to late afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph from the NW to NNW.

Thursday night: Mostly clear, windy, and very cold with lows in the mid teens with wind gusts up to 35 mph from the NW.

Friday: Mostly sunny, windy, and frigid with highs only in the low to mid 20's with wind gusts up to 35 mph from the NW. The wind chill will mostly be in the single digits.

Friday night: Clear, windy, and frigid with lows in the low teens with wind gusts up to 25 mph from the NW. The wind chill temperatures will be as low as -5 degrees.

Saturday: Sunny, a little breezy still with the wind at 10 to 15 mph from the NW, and very cold with highs in the upper 20's.

Sunday: Increasing clouds with snow possible by midnight Sunday night, but there is uncertainty on the timing. Highs in the mid 30's.

Monday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of snow, possibly changing to rain in the afternoon. The track and intensity of the storm will determine if it mixes with or changes to sleet and/or rain. With the right track, there is the potential for significant accumulations going into Tuesday. Highs in the mid to upper 30's, but it will depend somewhat on the track.


- 1st image: Current radar as of 4:50 AM

- 2nd and 3rd images: Projected storm locations for 1 AM Tuesday and 7 PM Tuesday from the Euro ensemble members

- 4th to 6th images: Maps from the Euro (7 PM Tues), Canadian (1 PM Monday), and GFS (1 PM Monday)

- 7th image: Probability of greater than 3 inches of snow through 7 AM next Wednesday from the Euro ensembles

- 8th image: Projected wind chill temperatures at 7 AM Saturday from the Euro

- 9th and 10th images: Projected snowfall for Long Island and Boston, respectively, for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member

- 11th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles

- 12th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend
















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