Update on the strong rain/wind storm and LI forecast with power outages and is any snow in sight?
Firstly, the models aren't really showing any snowstorms in sight for the next 10 days. Only a few of the Euro ensembles are showing snow for Long Island around Jan 4th/5th. This weekend will be very cold, but it will turn milder on Monday with some showers by afternoon and evening.
The details for the rain/wind are in the Long Island forecast below, but the will be some down trees and power outages as there will be gusts up to 60 mph, and if the models are correct, possibly over 65 mph in spots. I am sure when I post the list of wind gusts after the storm, you are going to see some gusts in the 69 to 74 mph range in the typical windier spots like Great Gull Island and Stony Brook (above ground level) with many gusts in the 60 to 66 mph range along the south shore. The reason the models are showing wind gusts over 70 mph is from a very strong low-level jet that will be passing over Long Island and southern New England. The wind will literally be roaring overhead, and with heavier rain along the squall line, enough of these winds should mix down to the surface. There will also be close to 2 inches of rain on Long Island with very heavy downpours when the squall lines comes through, possibly around 4 AM to 6 AM on Christmas.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
*A High Wind Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service from 6 PM tomorrow (Thursday) through 12 PM Friday for wind gusts up to 60 mph from the south *
Today (Wednesday): Increasing clouds with highs in the low to mid 40's with light winds.
Tonight: Cloudy with temperatures rising after midnight to the low to mid 40's by morning.
Tomorrow (Thursday, Christmas Eve): Cloudy and mild with a slight chance of a shower in the afternoon, but with a better chance of a steady rain developing at night after 11 PM as a strong cold front approaches. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50's with a S to SSE wind up to 25 mph, increasing in the evening. Overnight, the rain will be heavy at times with strong wind gusts of 45 to potentially 60 or even 65 mph into early morning on Christmas with temperatures approaching 60 degrees before the cold front moves through. Total rainfall should be close to 2 inches. As of now, the heaviest rain looks to be between 3 AM and 7 AM.
Friday (Christmas Day): Morning rain and wind ending around mid to late morning from west to east with temperatures dropping throughout the day from the mid 50's early in the morning into the upper 30's by late afternoon as the wind shifts to the W to WSW behind the front with gusts of 20 mph in the afternoon. The sun could briefly come out in the mid to late afternoon.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and very cold with highs in the low 30's. It will also be breezy.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold with highs in the mid 30's.
Monday: Cloudy with showers possible by mid to late afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40's.
- 1st image: Storm overview for the tri-state area from the NWS NY
- 2nd image: Maximum projected wind gusts through 7 PM Friday from the National Weather Service.
- 3rd image: Projected precipitation through 7 AM Saturday from the Weather Prediction Center
- 4th to 6th images: Simulated future radar for Friday (Christmas) at 1 AM, 5 AM, and 10 AM
- 7th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend