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Update on the tropical system and the Long Island forecast with some subtle changes:

- The potential tropical cyclone is becoming a little better organized, but it's max potential before landfall in Louisiana late tonight is as a minimal tropical storm. Peak storm surge will be around 2 to 3 feet, but 5 to 10 inches of rain is expected from eastern LA to the western Florida Panhandle, and there is the potential for isolated tornadoes.

- The overnight Euro run isn't showing the wind gusts for the coast of the Carolinas to be as strong as it was showing yesterday, but gusts to 50 mph are still likely.

- There is pretty good agreement from the Euro ensembles that the system will pass well southeast of Long Island on Tuesday morning.

- The subtle change for Long Island is for tomorrow. While some showers are expected tonight into tomorrow morning, mostly from midnight to 9 AM, most of tomorrow now looks dry; there is only around 20% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. There is a little better chance of a shower or thunderstorm at night, mostly after 7 or 8 PM. While Father's Day looks nice, the humidity will be moderate instead of low, and Monday looks humid and very warm to hot. While the rain from the tropical system should miss us, an approaching cold front on Tuesday will being the threat of showers and thunderstorms later in the day and in the evening with the potential for heavy downpours. Wednesday and Thursday then look beautiful with low humidity and highs mostly in the upper 70's.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Sunny in the morning with increasing high clouds late in the day and becoming breezy. Highs mostly in the upper 70's to low 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SSW in the afternoon at 10 to 15 mph with some gusts up to 25 mph late in the afternoon, especially along the south shore.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and breezy with some scattered showers around after midnight. Lows mostly in the mid 60's. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 20 mph.

Tomorrow: Chance of showers until around mid-morning and then partly sunny, warmer, and fairly humid with only a 20% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs ranging from the upper 80's for northern Nassau and northwestern Suffolk to the upper 70's to low 80's as you head towards the south shore and eastern Suffolk. Wind out of the SSW to WSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly after 7 PM. Lows mostly in the mid to upper 60's. Wind mostly out of the WSW at around 10 mph.

Sunday (Father's Day): Mostly sunny and a little less humid in the afternoon with highs mostly in the low to mid 80's, but some upper 80's in northern Nassau and cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the W to WSW at around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Monday: Partly cloudy and more humid with highs mostly in the mid 80's, but some upper 80's in northern Nassau and cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S at 5 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and humid with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the late afternoon into the evening. There is the potential for heavy downpours. Highs mostly in the low 80's. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and less humid with highs in the upper 70's.

Thursday: Sunny with low humidity with highs in the upper 70's.


- 1st image: Euro ensembles

- 2nd image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 3rd image: Forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center

- 4th image: Projected rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center

- 5th and 6th images: Flood potential and projected storm surge

- 7th and 8th images: Severe weather potential for today into early tomorrow morning and for tomorrow into early Sunday morning from the Weather Prediction Center

- 9th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend










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