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Update on the Tropics

Well, the mystery continues! The National Hurricane Center is at a 90% chance of tropical development for Invest 98L. However, the Euro and Euro ensembles are much less bullish than they were yesterday. On the other hand, the newly upgraded GFS ensembles show more development with many of the members showing it becoming a hurricane.

- The 1st image is the Euro ensembles, the 2nd image is the GFS ensembles, the 3rd image is early 18Z track guidance from various models, and the 4th image is from the National Hurricane Center.

The following is from the National Hurricane Center for Invest 97L and Invest 98L:

1. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce an area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds. This wave is moving quickly westward at about 20 mph and significant development is unlikely while it moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to slow down, and a tropical depression will likely form late this week or this weekend when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. An area of low pressure located about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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