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Update on the tropics and Long Island:


- We can continue to have the 2 potential systems in the western Caribbean. There is more uncertainty than usual in the potential track and strength of each system. It appears that the 2nd system has a better chance and possibly coming north towards the United States, and the GFS ensembles are more bullish than the Euro ensembles.

- The following is from the National Hurricane Center:

1. Showers and thunderstorms located over the west-central Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the northwest Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity of the wave as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter in that region, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the system meanders. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. Another tropical wave located a couple hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward during the next several days where environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development over the central or western Caribbean Sea by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Long Island forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny with highs mostly in the low to mid 70's. 

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and cooler with a 40% chance of some showers. Some sun is possible by late afternoon. Highs mostly in the mid 60's.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

Monday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of showers with highs in the mid 60's.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

- 1st image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days

- 2nd image: From the National Hurricane Center

- 3rd image: Projected rainfall for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center

- 4th image: Projected high temperatures for today from the National Weather Service

- 5th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend

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