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Update on the Tropics and Long Island Weather

- The National Hurricane Center is at 80%, 90%, and 20% probability of tropical development for Invest 97L, Invest 98L, and the new system coming off the coast of Africa, respectively.

- The models are all over the place with Invest 98L, and the Euro and Euro ensembles are bearish on development. However, most of the other models develop it into a strong tropical storm or hurricane. So, there is a greater amount of uncertainty than usual. Hopefully we will see the models converge a little more today. You can see the projected tracks in the images below.

- I will have more updates throughout the day with the latest information.

Long Island weather:

- Overall, it will be a dry pattern for the next 7 days, but unfortunately, there have been some changes to the forecast for today. It should be mostly cloudy this morning into early afternoon with a 40% chance of some showers and thunderstorms at times into early afternoon. It should then become partly cloudy by mid to late afternoon with highs mostly in the upper 70's, but it will be somewhat sunshine-dependent.

- Tomorrow looks great with sunny skies and low humidity with highs mostly near 80 degrees.

- Friday should be partly cloudy with highs mostly in the low 80's.

- There will be increased humidity this weekend, but for the most part it will be partly cloudy with just a slight chance of a passing afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs should be mostly in the mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end.

- Monday and Tuesday look to be warmer with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80's with just a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.

- 1st image: From the National Hurricane Center.

- 2nd and 3rd images: Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles for the next 10 days, respectively.

- 4th and 5th images: Early 06Z track guidance for Invest 98L and Invest 97L, respectively.

- 6th image: Simulated radar for 12:00 today from the HRRR model.

- 7th image: Projected high temperatures for today from the National Weather Service.

- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend.

- 9th image: Projected rainfall for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center.


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