Update on the tropics and the Long Island forecast:
Each system is now up to a 30% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days, according to the National Hurricane Center. The system ESE of Bermuda will not reach the east coast though, so it's the SW Caribbean that is more concerning, as it has the potential to become a hurricane and head northward or northeastward. There is a little better agreement now between the ensembles of both the Euro and GFS for it to generally move NNE towards Cuba and then the Bahamas and then possibly in the general direction of Bermuda. However, that is far from set in stone; all options are still on the table.
Long Island forecast:
Today: Cloudy with only some scattered showers at times this morning, becoming more widespread in the afternoon from west to east. A steadier rain in the evening and overnight. Temperatures slowly dropping throughout the day from the low to mid 60's in the morning to the mid 50's by late afternoon. Total rainfall of 0.75 to 1.5 inches is expected by Saturday mid-morning.
Tomorrow: Breezy and chilly with rain ending from around 6 AM to 9 AM from west to east with the sun then coming out quickly by mid to late morning from west to east. Highs only around 60 degrees. The wind will quickly die down in the mid to late afternoon with nearly calm conditions expected at night, which will set the stage for radiational cooling with overnight lows mostly in the upper 30's to low 40's, but possibly as low as 33 degrees at Westhampton Beach.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 60's.
Monday: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid 60's. Only a slight chance of a shower in the evening and at night.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower highs in the mid to upper 60's.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. Highs in the upper 60's.
- 1st image (video): Simulated future radar from the NAM from 9:00 this morning to 4 PM tomorrow
- 2nd image: Projected rainfall through 8 AM Sunday from the Weather Prediction Center
- 3rd image: Projected rainfall through 2 PM tomorrow from the HRRR model
- 4th image: Projected snowfall through 2 PM tomorrow from the National Weather Service.
- 5th image: Overview of the tropics from the National Hurricane Center
- 6th and 7th images: GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles, respectively, each for the next 10 days
- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend