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Update on the tropics and the Long Island forecast:

Invest 94L should finally become a subtropical or tropical depression today and tomorrow and then subtropical or tropical storm Epsilon tomorrow or Wednesday. It should come close to Bermuda later this week, probably as a hurricane.


The potential system in the western Caribbean still has only a 20% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days, according to the National Hurricane Center. The GFS ensembles remain more bullish on development than the Euro ensembles, but overall, the potential threat has lessened significantly.


A note on the new Euro run, as it's no longer showing the strong storm for the 28th, but it still bears watching. There will probably still be some wind and rain for the northeast around the 27th/28th from a storm system moving through New England.


Long Island forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 60's. 

Tomorrow: Some drizzle or light rain is possible in the morning. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy with highs around 70 degrees.

Wednesday: Cloudy with patchy fog possible early and a slight chance of a shower, and then becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs around 70 degrees.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with highs in the low 70's.

Friday: Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 60's.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 60's. 


- 1st image: Projected rainfall for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center

- 2nd image: From the National Hurricane Center

- 3rd and 4th images: Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles, respectively, each for the next 15 days

- 5th image: Intensity estimates from various models for Invest 94L

- 6th image: Projected snowfall for the next 10 days from the Euro

- 7th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend









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