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Update on the tropics and the Long Island forecast with plenty of rain:


  • The tropics continue to remain quiet for now. The National Hurricane Center is showing a 20% chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean in the next 5 days.

  • Looking at the ensembles for the next 15 days, the GFS ensembles are much more bullish than the Euro ensembles.

Long Island:

Overall, we could get close to 3 inches of rain by Thursday morning; most of it will come between tomorrow night and early Thursday morning. Very heavy downpours are possible, especially late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, and there is also the potential for wind gusts over 30 mph.

Today: Early morning fog/ drizzle and then mostly cloudy and humid with a 20% chance of a shower. Highs in the mid 70's. 

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and humid with a 40% chance of showers with highs mostly in the mid 70's. A period of moderate to occasionally heavy rain is likely at night into Wednesday morning with wind gusts over 25 mph from the south.

Wednesday: Humid with rain and wind in the morning, but there should be a little break in the afternoon before another wave of rain arrives by late afternoon. Highs mostly in the low 70's. 

Thursday: Rain ending early in the morning, and then becoming sunny and less humid by late morning with highs in the low 70's. 

Friday: Partly cloudy with low humidity with highs mostly in the mid to upper 60's.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with low humidity with highs mostly in the mid 60's.

- 1st image: Projected rainfall through 2 AM Friday from the Weather Prediction Center

- 2nd image: Precipitable water map from the Euro for 2 AM Wednesday

- 3rd image: Overview map of the tropics from the National Hurricane Center

- 4th and 5th images: Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles, each for the next 15 days, respectively.

- 6th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend

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