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Update on the tropics and the Long Island forecast with some uncertainty for 4th of July weekend:

- My next post likely won't be until between 6 PM and 7 PM.

- The National Hurricane Center has reduced the probability of tropical development of Invest 95L to 30% within the next 5 days. The Euro ensembles are showing a little better chance of the system behind it, but overall, not too much to worry about right now.

- The details for Long Island are in the forecast below, but generally it looks pretty hot and humid from Monday to Wednesday especially.

- The 4th of July weekend forecast won't be an easy one this far out, but generally it looks a little cooler with some unsettled weather at times.

- It's now forecast to hit 104 degrees in Seattle on Monday; their all-time record is 103 degrees.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Cloudy in the morning with a slight chance of a light scattered shower or sprinkle, mostly in Suffolk, and then partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon with highs mostly in the upper 70's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Light and variable wind in the morning and then out of the S at 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Increasing clouds and humid with a slight chance of a shower late. Also, some patchy fog is possible. Lows in the mid to upper 60's. Wind out of the S at around 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Cloudy in the morning with a slight chance of a shower and then becoming partly sunny in the afternoon and it will also be humid with a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon with highs mostly in the upper 70's to around 80 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday: Humid in the morning and becoming mostly sunny with highs mostly in the mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S to SSW at 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, hot, and fairly humid with highs mostly in the upper 80's to near 90 degrees for northern and western areas, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S to SSW at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, hot, and fairly humid with a 20% chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm in the late afternoon or evening. Highs mostly in the upper 80's to low 90's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, hot, and fairly humid with a 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening with highs mostly in the upper 80's to around 90 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday: Partly cloudy and humid with a 40% chance of some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs mostly in the mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SW to SSW at 10 to 15 mph.


- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 2nd image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend

- 3rd image: From the NHC

- 4th image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days

- 5th image: Projected rainfall through 2 AM next Thursday from the Weather Prediction Center







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