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Update on the tropics with a potential U.S. landfall:

While there is still uncertainty, there seems to be a slowly increasing threat of a tropical system coming north towards the Gulf coast states between October 10th and 13th.


The first system has been designated as Invest 91L, but it's the 2nd system that may eventually be the one to affect the United States. You can see the Euro ensembles in the 3rd image.


The following is from the National Hurricane Center:


1. A well-defined tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form by early next week, but only if the system moves and remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico. Development will become less likely if the system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula or northern Central America. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, over portions of southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba during the next several days, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. Another tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles is also producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system

is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.





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