Update on the weekend storm, the Long Island forecast, and some signals for a big mid-month storm:
The Euro continues to show a very strong storm for Saturday tracking over Long Island with heavy snow well inland and heavy rain along the storm track with strong wind gusts on the east side of the storm. I have included the maps below, but the other models don't have the storm being quite that strong, so the rain, snow, and wind amounts will probably be lower than shown. However, most of the Euro ensembles show the strong storm, and the max wind gusts for Long Island from the Euro ensemble mean has increased to over 43 mph. Also, the Weather Prediction Center, which just yesterday morning was showing less than an inch of rain for Long Island, is now showing 2 to 3 inches. The timing is mostly Friday night into early Sunday morning for Long Island, but some showers could begin Friday afternoon and linger into late morning on Sunday.
The models are showing a potential big storm for mid-month. The GFS has been showing it, but the track could be anywhere, and the Euro ensembles are showing it too. There are even some Euro ensemble members showing a snowstorm for Long Island, although the overall odds are still low.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Wednesday): Partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the mid 40's. Wind gusts up to 20 mph from the WSW to W.
Tomorrow (Thursday): Mostly sunny with highs around 50 degrees.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers in the afternoon with highs in the low 50's.
Saturday: Cloudy with a 90% chance of rain throughout most of the day. Highs in the upper 40's. There is the potential for moderate to heavy rain with gusty winds.
Sunday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of showers in the morning with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Partial clearing is possible in the afternoon, and it will be windy with gusts up to 25 mph from the NW mostly.
Monday: Partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the low to mid 40's.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 40's.
- 1st image: Map from the Euro for 1 PM Saturday
- 2nd and 3rd images: Projected snowfall through 7 PM Sunday from the Euro and Euro ensemble mean, respectively.
- 4th image: Projected precipitation through 1 PM Sunday from the Euro
- 5th image: Projected precipitation through 7 AM Monday from the Weather Prediction Center
- 6th image: Maximum projected wind gusts in knots through 7 AM Sunday from the Euro
- 7th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
- 8th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles
- 9th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend