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Update on Tropical Depression Eleven and Long Island Weather

Tropical Depression Eleven is disorganized, but it's still expected to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Josephine sometime today or tonight and peak at around 50 mph maximum sustained winds on Saturday before wind shear and dry air cause weakening and dissipation into a trough by Tuesday. It's not a threat to the United States.

Long Island forecast: - Today: Mostly cloudy and humid with a 50% chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms with the best chance being between 2 PM and 7 PM. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 80's, and with precipitable water value close to 2 inches, any thunderstorm can contain heavy downpours. Also, with weak flow aloft, they can be slow-moving, which can lead to localized flash flooding. - Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy and humid with just a 20% chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm with highs mostly in the low to mid 80's. - Saturday: Partly cloudy, less humid, and breezy with highs mostly in the low 80's. The wind will be mostly out of the ENE at 10 to 15 mph. - Sunday: There is some uncertainty, but it looks like a wave of low pressure to our south will come close enough to bring showers in the afternoon and evening. Highs should be in the upper 70's to near 80 degrees.

- 1st image: From the National Hurricane Center. - 2nd image: Tropical Depression Eleven IR satellite image. - 3rd image: Early 06Z track guidance for Tropical Depression Eleven. - 4th image: Euro ensemble tracks for the next 15 days. - 5th image: Projected high temperatures for today from the National Weather Service. - 6th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend. - 7th image: Projected rainfall for the next 10 days from the Euro.

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