Update on Zeta and northeast effects, next potential tropical system, and the Long Island forecast:
Zeta is now a tropical storm with 60 mph winds and is racing off to the northeast at 39 mph, and it will pass south of Long Island this evening. The upper level low will be trailing behind it, and colder air will bring snow to New England. See below for the latest snow and precipitation maps, as well as the maximum projected wind gusts. For Long Island, generally around 2 inches of rain with gusts as high as 40 mph for the south shore and east end.
There is a 40% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days in the southern Caribbean, according to the National Hurricane Center. The next "name" on the list is Eta, and there is uncertainty in the future track and strength. It's possible that it could move into Central America, but some of the Euro ensembles also have it coming north.
Long Island forecast:
Today (Thursday): Rain developing early this morning and becoming moderate to occasionally heavy at times in the afternoon and early evening. Increasingly windy in the afternoon and evening with the wind out of the NE with gusts of 25 to 35 mph and up to 40 mph for the south shore and east end. Temperatures nearly steady in the low 50's.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of a strengthening NE flow Thursday into Thursday night along with the approach of the full moon this weekend raises the potential for a widespread minor coastal flood event for the high tide cycle Friday morning. A few locations on the south shore of Nassau county, but not enough confidence for a coastal flood watch. Model trends have continued to show a more elongated low and farther SE secondary low pressure and a better agreement on winds becoming NNE for the Friday morning high tide. Guidance has trended downward and the preference at this time was to average ETSS, ESTOFS, with a slightly higher weight to NYHOPS. This results in a surge of 2 to 2 1/2 ft with a low probability of up to 3 ft. Localized minor coastal flooding is possible with Friday night high tide in the south shore back bays.
Tomorrow (Friday): Rain and windy in the morning ending by early to mid afternoon from west to east with temperatures dropping from the mid 40's in the morning to the low 40's by late afternoon. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph (40 mph for the south shore and east end) out of the NNE in the morning and shifting to N and decreasing by mid to late afternoon. Total rainfall of around 2 inches from Thursday morning to Friday afternoon. Clearing and cold at night with lows in the low 30's by Halloween morning.
Halloween: Mostly sunny and chilly with highs in the upper 40's.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 50's. Some showers are possibly by evening.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, windy, and cold with highs only in the mid 40's. Wind gusts up to 30 mph from the WNW to NW.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny and still breezy with highs in the mid to upper 40's.
- 1st image: Key messages for Zeta from the NHC
- 2nd image: Current IR satellite view of Zeta
- 3rd image: The next potential tropical system
- 4th image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days
- 5th and 6th images: Projected snowfall through 8 PM tomorrow from the National Weather Service and Euro, respectively
- 7th image: Projected precipitation through 2 AM Saturday from the Weather Prediction Center
- 8th image: Maximum projected wind gusts from the National Weather Service
- 9th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend