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Update on Zeta, northeast storm with rain/snow/wind, and the Long Island forecast:

Tropics:

- Zeta is currently over the Yucatan Peninsula, so it has weakened slightly to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. However, conditions are favorable for intensification in the southern to central Gulf of Mexico, so it's expected to become a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Some slight weakening will likely take place right before landfall tomorrow. Maximum projected storm surge is still 4 to 6 feet with projected rainfall of 2 to 6 inches. A few tornadoes will be possible on the east side of the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS: INIT 27/0900Z 21.0N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN 12H 27/1800Z 22.3N 90.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 28/0600Z 24.4N 91.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 31.7N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 29/1800Z 36.5N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/0600Z 40.3N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED


- There are still signs of another tropical system in the southern Caribbean in 7 to 10 days (see Euro ensembles below).


Northeast storm:

- Regarding the potential snow, the models are still split with the Euro, GFS-Parallel, and Canadian showing more snow than the GFS and ICON, which show very little snow. For Long Island, it's going to be all rain with 2 to 3 inches expected with wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph and minor to locally moderate coastal flooding on Friday (see more details below in the Long Island forecast). I will continue to update on the storm.


Long Island forecast:


Today (Tuesday): Cloudy with patchy fog early in the morning and then becoming partly to mostly cloudy with highs close to 60 degrees.

Tomorrow (Wednesday): 30% chance of a few morning showers, and then partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the upper 50's.

Thursday: Rain developing by late morning with periods of moderate to heavy rain by late afternoon and evening. Increasingly windy at night with the wind out of the NE with gusts over 25 mph. Highs in the mid to upper 50's.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The high tide cycle on Friday is of concern for widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding as astronomical high tide levels rise in association with the full moon on Halloween, and as strong NE winds bring in surge. An early look per latest guidance suggests total tide departures of at least 1-1/2 to 2 ft and locally 2-1/2 ft, with a worst case about 1/2 foot higher than that.

Friday: Rainy, windy, and chilly with temperatures dropping from the upper 40's in the morning to the low 40's by late afternoon. Showers ending around early evening. Wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph out of the NE and shifting to N by late afternoon. Total rainfall of 2 to 3 inches from Thursday morning to Friday evening. Clearing and cold at night with lows in the low to mid 30's by Halloween morning.

Halloween: Mostly sunny and chilly with highs in the upper 40's to around 50 degrees.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 50's.


- 1st image: Official forecast map for Hurricane Zeta

- 2nd image: Zeta

- 3rd image: Projected snowfall through 8 AM Saturday from the Euro ensemble mean

- 4th image: Projected precipitation through 2 AM Saturday from the Euro ensemble mean

- 5th image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days

- 6th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend








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