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Very nice forecast discussion from the NWS for Long Island and the tri-state area for tomorrow:

Challenging forecast for Wednesday as low pressure will pass south and east of our area and east the 40/70 benchmark. This will bring a light snowfall event to the entire area and advisory level snow to the higher elevations in Orange and western Passaic. Low pressure will move off of the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday morning in association with mid level shortwave energy. Although not a real deep or strong system, it will bring a light snowfall event to the entire area. Precipitation likely starts off as all snow and remains all snow until late Wednesday morning. At this time, a rain/snow mix will be possible along southern LI and NYC. This rain/snow mix line only goes as far north as the southern CT coast in the afternoon, locations north of here likely stay as all snow. The biggest challenge with this event is how much snow will accumulate and on what surfaces it will be able to accumulate on. The snow will be battling above freezing surface temps and also the higher sun angle of early/mid March. Have mixed colder NAM in the warmer NBM for temperatures. Latest HREF guidance show the potential for snowfall rates up to 3/4 of an inch to 1 inch in banding during the late morning and early afternoon. If this happens, then snow will likely be able to stick to roads. If snowfall stays lighter, it is likely roads will just remain wet through the day. Another challenge is ptype. If precip intensity is too light, then a rain/snow mix or rain is more likely. This is possible at the end of the event when it looks like precipitation intensity will lighten. Heavier precipitation will cool the column and help ptype remain all snow. Given the above information, have forecast about 1-2 inches across Suffolk County, 1/2 - 1 inch across Nassau, NYC and most of NE NJ and then mostly 2 inches elsewhere, with 3 inches across the higher elevations in the interior. In collaboration with neighboring offices have decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Orange and western Passaic for 3 inches of snowfall. There is the potential for the Advisory to be expanded by subsequent shifts. The snow and rain/snow mix taper off Wednesday evening and high pressure begins to build in. Lows at night will be right around seasonable, low 30s across LI and NYC and mid to upper 20s across CT and the Lower Hudson Valley.



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