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Wind Advisory for Suffolk - details on the rain/wind, Long Island forecast, and the tropics:

Tropics:

- There is still a 50% chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean within the next 5 days, according to the National Hurricane Center. The Euro ensembles are not overly bullish on development, and there are no clear signals at this time. There seems to be a better chance of something more significant as we get towards October 10th.


Long Island:

The forecast is below, but a Wind Advisory has been issued for Suffolk from midnight tonight to 6 AM tomorrow for wind gusts from the south at up to 45 mph. The Euro, NAM, and HRRR continue to show the potential for stronger wind gusts, but they may not mix down to the surface completely. I wouldn't be surprised though to see some gusts in the 47 to 53 mph range in the normally windier spots, such as right along the shore and at elevation. Also, there will be some torrential downpours between 1 AM and 6 AM with precipitable water values between 2 and 2.5 inches, with the Euro actually showing an insane max at 2.99 inches. It basically just means extremely heavy downpours are likely. Total rainfall amounts will mostly be around 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Lesser amounts are expected in eastern Suffolk.


Today: Cloudy and humid with some showers at times with highs in the low to mid 70's.

Tonight: Rain becoming heavy at times after midnight with wind gusts from the south up to 40 mph in Nassau and up to 45 mph in Suffolk between midnight and 7 AM from west to east. There is a Wind Advisory for Suffolk from midnight to 6 AM.

Tomorrow: Heavy rain and wind early in the morning tapering off to showers and ending from west to east between 10 AM and Noon. Quickly turning mostly sunny and less humid by early to mid afternoon from west to east as the cold front moves through. Highs in the low 70's.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with low humidity with highs in the low 70's. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60's.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs mostly in the mid 60's.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with highs mostly in the mid 60's.


- 1st image (video): Simulated future radar from Noon today to Noon tomorrow from the HRRR model

- 2nd image: Projected rainfall through 2 PM tomorrow from the Euro

- 3rd image: Projected rainfall through 2 AM Thursday from the Weather Prediction Center

- 4th image: Precipitable water map from the Euro for 5 AM tomorrow

- 5th image: Wind advisory map

- 6th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend

- 7th image: From the National Hurricane Center

- 8th image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days











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