Search
  • My Personal Weatherman™

Winter Storm Watch now includes eastern Suffolk too:

Multiple posts in a short period of time, so read all previous posts too. For eastern Suffolk, the NWS is saying 5 to 8 inches with wind gusts up to 55 mph, and for the rest of Long Island, 6 to 12 inches with wind gusts up to 45 mph. The NWS is slow to come out with the new snow map, so I will post it when it's out, but this is from their discussion (they cover Long Island and the Tri-State area):

A significant winter storm is expected to impact the region during Sunday night through Tuesday period. The 12Z forecast models continue to provide an increasing confidence for the occurrence of a significant storm, but not eliminate any of the forecast uncertainty with respect to exact details. Low pressure is expected to move across the middle portion of the country, eventually moving off the middle Atlantic Coast and slowly passing south and east of the local area. There still remains a high amount of uncertainty regarding the rain/snow line as we get into Mon and Monday night. With strong easterly flow, it is likely a coastal front sets up somewhere in the vicinity of Long Island. The challenge is how much it pivots across the area, and how much warm air aloft works into the system. The latter is highly track dependent. The ECMWF is the warmest solution, with the NAM and GFS much colder. Snow will gradually overspread the region Sunday night, with the heaviest precipitation occurring during the day on Monday and into the first half of Monday night. A lingering band may then set up somewhere in or near the cwa for the rest of the night as the storm is slow to pull away. Have decided to include the remainder of the forecast area into the winter storm watch. While, there is still a threat of mixing across the Twin Forks of Long Island and southern New London, we do think there is enough of a chance to reach warning level snowfall before any change over or mixing occurs. Even if we fall short of the 6 inches in these areas, there should be a significant impact to travel throughout the day Monday. While a particularly deep low is not expected to develop, there will be a tight gradient due to a 1030s high sitting over Quebec. As a result, strong winds are likely with this storm. Gusts to around 60 mph seem likely at the peak of the storm, especially over the far eastern sections of Long Island. The low is still expected to linger over the area and not get completely out until Tuesday night. While most of the accumulating snow ends by Tuesday morning, some additional light amounts may occur.


The following image is the from the NWS model blend, and it goes through 7 PM Wednesday:



29 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All