Zeta trends stronger and farther west, models trend snowier in NE, and Long Island forecast:
Tropical Storm Zeta continues to strengthen; maximum sustained winds are now up to 70 mph with a minimum central pressure of 990 mb. It will become a hurricane later this morning and cross the Yucatan Peninsula tonight into tomorrow morning, and only weaken a little over land. It's now projected to make landfall as a minimal hurricane along the central to eastern Louisiana coastline on Wednesday afternoon as the models have trended slightly farther west with the track.
Between Tuesday night and Thursday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches is expected across portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. The expected rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.7N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 20.8N 87.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/1800Z 22.5N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 28/0600Z 24.7N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 27.7N 90.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 31.8N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/0600Z 39.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
While Long Island will likely get 2 to 3 inches of rain from Thursday morning to Friday evening, there is a good chance of snow in New England on Friday, especially higher elevations and inland areas. I will continue to watch this and update.
Long Island forecast:
Today (Monday): Cloudy with some drizzle highs in the upper 50's to near 60 degrees. An onshore flow with an easterly breeze at 10 mph.
Tomorrow (Tuesday): Partly to mostly cloudy with highs close to 60 degrees.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning and partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon with highs in the upper 50's.
Thursday: Showers developing by mid to late morning with periods of moderate to heavy rain by late afternoon and evening. Increasingly breezy by evening and at night with the wind out of the NE with gusts over 20 mph. Highs in the mid 50's.
Friday: Rainy, breezy, and chilly with highs only in the upper 40's. Showers ending in the late afternoon or early evening. Wind gusts over 25 mph especially in the morning. Total rainfall of 2 to 3 inches from Thursday morning to Friday evening. Clearing and cold at night with lows in the mid 30's by Halloween morning.
Halloween: Mostly sunny and chilly with highs around 50 degrees.
- 1st image: Tropical Storm Zeta forecast map from the National Hurricane Center
- 2nd image: Tropical Storm Zeta
- 3rd image: Projected precipitation through 2 AM Saturday from the Weather Prediction Center
- 4th and 5th images: Projected snowfall through 8 AM Saturday from the Euro ensemble mean and the GFS, respectively
- 6th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend
- 7th image: Maximum projected wind gusts through only 8 PM Wednesday from the National Weather Service