What is officially known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 10 is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to eastern North Carolina today, and it will be heading northeast to give a glancing blow to Long Island tonight. We can expect rain late this afternoon until early tomorrow morning. Rainfall amounts should be around a half inch, but possibly up to three quarters of an inch for eastern Suffolk. Winds should generally be 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, but a peak wind gust of 40 to 45 mph is possible in far eastern Suffolk. The storm will intensify once it's well offshore and have hurricane-force winds of 80 mph, but it may never acquire truly tropical characteristics, so it may not acquire the status of a named tropical system, which means the name Irma may go to the next system, which I will discuss below. Long Island will also have to watch for some rain from Harvey this coming weekend; as of now, it looks to be around Saturday night into Sunday. I will update that more tomorrow.
Tropical Storm Harvey continues to dump heavy rain on southeast Texas, with another 10 to 15 inches being possible by tomorrow before the storm finally starts to head north and northeast tomorrow into Thursday.
The next tropical system will be forming in the next few days in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and since the name Irma may not be given to Potential Tropical Cyclone 10, this could eventually be known as Hurricane Irma, and it has the potential to pose a significant threat to the United States around September 9th to 12th. The storm is being shown by all of the major computer models to intensify into a hurricane. The big question will be the track. The GFS model has been showing it starting to curve more northward once it gets near Bermuda, and it keeps it away from the United States. However, the Euro model is showing a strong high pressure ridge to the north of the storm, and it keeps it heading more westerly. I will continue to update this situation. The following image shows the track range from the Euro ensemble runs (note this model only goes out to 240 hours):