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Potential For Hurricane Michael Next Week

October 4, 2018

- There is actually much better agreement among the models and an increasing chance for the development of a tropical system in the western Caribbean this weekend with a potential path into the Gulf of Mexico.next week.
- The 1st image shows the Euro ensemble tracks. They show development this weekend in the western Caribbean with a general northward movement towards the central Gulf coast or west coast of Florida next week. The 2nd image shows the increasing chance of development of a Tropical Depression in the 4 to 6 day time-frame according to the Euro ensembles. The 3rd image shows the locations of the storm from the Euro ensemble members at 8 PM next Wednesday.
- The Euro, FV3-GFS (upgraded GFS), Canadian, and Navy (NAVGEM) models are all showing landfall of either a strong tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane along the central Gulf coast between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle from the middle to end of next week. It's too early to know the exact track or strength, but it bears watching. 

                                                         Image from weathermodels.com

 

 

                                                      Image from weathermodels.com

 

                                                          Image from weathermodels.com

 

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