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- Keep in mind, this will be an evolving situation tomorrow.
- Here is the official statement from the National Weather Service in NY: "Severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. The primary threats are damaging winds and large hail. There is also a flash flood threat for the area, with torrential rainfall likely in any storms that develop."
- Here are some of their other comments in their discussion: "The forecast gets very complicated in the second half of the day... along and south of this strengthening boundary will be the greatest severe threat, with damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes all possible. Low level shear will be enhanced late as the MCS over PA draws closer... there is high uncertainty with the exact details this far out... regardless of the severe threat, a flash flood threat will evolve through the day. Those areas near the strengthening boundary will be the hardest hit."
- The NAM (1st image) and Euro are both showing the potential or isolated amounts of up to 3 or even 4 inches of rain on Long Island. They are both showing precipitable waters at times of over 2.5", which means there can be torrential downpours. The HRRR model has the heavier rain farther north (last image).
- It appears that the main time-frame for the heavy rain and severe weather threat is from around 3 PM tomorrow until 3 AM Wednesday. There will be some showers around tomorrow morning into early afternoon too. It will obviously be humid tomorrow afternoon with dew points over 70 degrees.