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- The overnight Euro run is a little closer to the coast of Florida and has landfall at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The GFS has landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina. This will have to be watched closely today to see if the westward trend continues.
- As of the 5 AM advisory, sustained winds are still 150 mph with gusts over 175 mph, but the pressure is down to 934 mb! It's moving west at 8 mph. No major changes in intensity are expected today. It could reach 155 mph today with very gradual weakening possible beginning tonight.
- There are still no Hurricane Watches issued for Florida, but a portion of the east coast of Florida is now under a Tropical Storm Warning
- Grand Bahama Island could experience wind gusts greater than 100 mph for more than 40 straight hours with 30 to 50 inches of rain.
- Regarding track, from the NHC: "By tonight, the global models show the ridge weakening, and this evolution should result in a slowing of the forward speed, with the hurricane becoming nearly stationary around 48 hours. In comparison to its earlier runs, the new ECMWF (what I refer to as the "Euro") track forecast takes the system farther to the west during the next couple of days, and is the southwestern-most model through 48 hours. As a result, the official track forecast has been shifted a little west during that time frame. In 2 to 4 days, Dorian should turn northward in response to a trough over the eastern United States."