Another dry and warm day for Long Island before the rain approaches, Gordon to rejuvenate, but nobody cares, and watching for the chance for a hurricane to form next week in the western Caribbean...

Here's the slight risk of high winds for southern Florida September 24th to 26th with the new Euro ensembles map for the next 15 days:

I'll be posting the new Euro ensembles map before 3:45 PM, but here are the new GFS ensembles, GFS, and Canadian showing the...

Here are the new GFS ensembles for the next 15 days showing the potential for a hurricane (Isaac?) to head generally northward from the western Caribbean Sea:

***Another nice day in the northeast, very stormy in the Carolinas from potential Helene with up to 10 inches of rain and 60 mph wind gusts, rain makes it up to Long Island mid-week, Gordon to come...

Finally some rain for Long Island this week; here's the Model Blend rainfall map through Friday morning:

Rainfall, max radar, and max gusts through early afternoon Tuesday from the HRRR model for the Carolinas from potential Helene with possibly up to 8 inches of rain with wind gusts up to 60 mph:

Potential Tropical Cyclone map as it likely becomes Tropical Storm Helene before heading inland late tomorrow:

***New Euro ensembles for the next 15 days***

Up to 7 inches of rain for the coast of North Carolina by 8 AM Tuesday from the HREF ensemble mean:

Brief 3:20 AM update with the new maps:

It's not a great map, but you can see the general idea here with some of the GFS ensemble members showing a chance for a tropical storm or hurricane to form in the western Caribbean Sea and head...

Here are the latest maps for the tropics along with the 10-day rainfall map from the Model Blend and maps from the Euro for early Tuesday morning and early Wednesday morning; it will be stormy for...

Brief 3:20 AM update with the latest maps as there is now a 50% chance for Helene to form just off the coast of the Carolinas. It looks like rain from it may make it up to Long Island for...

A long way to go, but according to the models, it's not looking promising for a lot of snow this winter:

Update on the tropics:

Update on the northeast and the tropics:

Brief 3:25 AM post as I get ready to go to the airport for my Vegas business (mostly) trip. The National Hurricane Center will likely increase their intensity estimates for future Hurricane...

***National Hurricane Center projecting it to become Hurricane Francine by landfall on Wednesday***

2 hurricanes: