My Personal Weatherman™
3:50 AM update with latest maps for Ian and an increased severe thunderstorm threat for L.I.:
- The NHC is now projecting a 140 mph Cat 4 peak, which seems right on target, but of course it can still be a little higher or lower. There are still some model track differences with the Euro being farther east still. The weakening on approach seems likely due to strong wind shear. Still major impacts from wind, rain, tornadoes, and storm surge. Since the Euro is farther east than the NHC track, I am not posting the wind map from it.
- The scattered thunderstorms for Long Island will mostly be between 5 PM and midnight, and they can contain heavy downpours, damaging wind gusts over 55 mph, hail, and an isolated tornado somewhere in the tri-state area can't be ruled out. Remember, most individual areas won't get a severe thunderstorm.
- Here are the wind projections for Ian from the NHC:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS: INIT 25/0300Z 14.7N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.6N 81.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 18.3N 82.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WEST TIP OF CUBA 72H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.9W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 29/0000Z 27.2N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 29.6N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH