My Personal Weatherman™
6 years ago: epic 51" bullseye from NAM over NYC as Long Island got 30 inches, but was a bust west:
The Blizzard of 2015 was exactly 6 years ago, and while it produced up to 30 inches of snow (see 1st image) and 60 mph wind gusts in eastern Suffolk, it was a big bust for NYC and NJ as the storm shifted eastward. I will never forget the NAM run that showed an epic 51-inch bullseye over NYC (see 2nd image). With Arctic air in place with temperatures expected to be in the low 20's for the storm, 3 feet of snow seemed realistic due to the higher snow ratios and 2 to 3 inches of liquid equivalent expected. Even the National Weather Service had an official forecast of 24 to 36 inches for Long Island (see 3rd image).
Here is some info from the NWS:
Summary: A potent Alberta Clipper low moved from southwestern Canada on January 24th to the Plains states and Ohio Valley on the 25th. The low then redeveloped off the Mid Atlantic coast on the 26th and rapidly intensified into a strong nor'easter, bringing heavy snow and strong winds to parts of the region. The heaviest snow and strongest winds occurred across eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut where up to 2 feet of snow fell, with blizzard conditions observed.
...SUFFOLK COUNTY... ORIENT 30.0 807 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTHAMPTON 29.0 615 PM 1/27 PUBLIC MATTITUCK 26.9 404 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER MEDFORD 25.6 100 PM 1/27 PUBLIC ISLIP AIRPORT 24.8 100 PM 1/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER NORTH PATCHOGUE 24.1 1235 PM 1/27 PUBLIC WEST BABYLON 24.0 600 PM 1/27 PUBLIC OAKDALE 23.5 120 PM 1/27 PUBLIC MILLER PLACE 22.0 130 PM 1/27 PUBLIC FLANDERS 22.0 204 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER PORT JEFFERSON 22.0 600 PM 1/27 PUBLIC LINDENHURST 21.6 530 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER FARMINGVILLE 21.5 330 PM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER HOLBROOK 21.5 100 PM 1/27 PUBLIC EAST NORTHPORT 21.0 715 PM 1/27 PUBLIC SHOREHAM 21.0 413 PM 1/27 PUBLIC COMMACK 20.0 1030 AM 1/27 PUBLIC