... keep in mind that it's still kind of uncertain, and the NAM actually has no snow for Long Island.
See previous post for the update on the potential storm for next weekend, and this is what the National Weather Service covering Long Island and the Tri-State area is saying about it...
Inherent model spread exists in timing/intensity/track of the
intensifying closed upper low as it slides towards the east coast
this weekend, with resultant timing/track/intensity differences in a
frontal system working towards the coast on Saturday/Saturday Night,
with possible coastal low development tracking to the southeast of
the area Sat Night/Sunday. The sensitivity for the forecast per SBU
ensemble sensitivity analysis has to do with the evolution of a mid
Pacific upper low and its downstream effects on the interaction
between the closed low currently sitting just off the Pacific NW
coast (the eventual late week approaching shortwave) with central
Canadian polar low during the early to mid week. Good clustering of
solutions this far out between the GEFS, CMC and ECE ensemble
members of primary low weakening across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
and coastal low development off the Carolinas Sat and then
intensifying and tracking se of the region Sat Night/Sun, but still
quite a bit to play out through mid week before
predictability/confidence increases in this evolution and sensible
weather detail.
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