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I said it would likely increase, and now it's up to 70%:

East of the Windward Islands: A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms to the southeast of an ill-defined center. Upper-level winds are likely to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days, if the system stays far enough away from land while moving westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and southeastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to become more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.






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