Long Island Cat 3 hurricane from the past, 7 and 10 day rainfall maps, and a note about later:

- In the 1st and 2nd images, you can see a category 3 hurricane that hit Long Island on this date in the distant past (1815).

- The 3rd and 4th images show the projected rainfall for the next 7 days (from the Weather Prediction Center) and 10 days (from the NWS Model Blend). You can see the general idea of the rain from the hurricane coming up the immediate coast, but of course plenty of uncertainty still.

- I probably won't have another post until after 7:30 this evening. There will be plenty of new info by then with the new Euro and Euro ensembles (which could both be very interesting), as well as the HWRF run, the 18Z tracks, and the new 5 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center. While it's possible it could become a Tropical Storm at that time, there is probably a better chance that it doesn't happen until tonight or early tomorrow morning as wind shear is still preventing it from organizing.

- Very chilly night ahead for Long Island with lows getting down into the mid 40's with a wind chill close to 40 degrees.