... here from the NHC:
-The big change in the aircraft data was the sizable expansion of the whole wind field in the eastern semicircle of the hurricane, which was also shown by a late-arriving SAR pass this morning. - After day 3, there is an increase in guidance spread as the hurricane interacts with an approaching frontal zone, which could cause a small leftward bend in the track. However, recent guidance has tightened somewhat, and the official forecast follows a middle-ground solution similar to the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means, on the fast side of the consensus. - Note: The 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text product and graphics are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 24.7N 66.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 25.4N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 26.7N 67.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 28.6N 68.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 30.7N 68.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 33.4N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 36.4N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 42.8N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 47.1N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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