Now up to 50% for the western Caribbean Sea into the eastern Gulf of Mexico:

I will post the new 06Z Euro ensembles this morning when they come out.

A broad area of low pressure, originating along the East Pacific coast of Central America, is forecast to move into northwestern Caribbean Sea by this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter into early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward, entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.