STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could each the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... *Anclote River to Englewood, FL including Tampa Bay... 5-8 ft *Englewood to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor... 4-7 ft *Bonita Beach to East Cape Sable, FL... 3-5 ft *East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay... 2-4 ft *Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas... 2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshorewinds in the Cayman Islands today. WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected on Grand Cayman today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the Florida west coast by Tuesday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible along the Florida West coast within the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday: Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches. Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches. Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches. Central West Florida: 8 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 15 inches. Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches. Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, and portions of the Southeast, and Mid Atlantic regions Friday and Saturday. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. Considerable flooding impacts are possible mid-to-late week in central Florida given already saturated antecedent conditions, and flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid week. Limited flood impacts and rises on area streams and rivers are possible over northern Florida and portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday across the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today and tonight. Swell are expected to begin affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
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