- The wind for tomorrow will be almost as strong as we had on Wednesday. As usual, the NWS is too low with their max gusts of 40 mph and the HRRR is too high at 55 mph, but I would go somewhere in the middle with max gusts mostly 45 mph in Nassau and closer to 50 mph in Suffolk, but mostly for the south shore and east end and at elevation, and a Wind Advisory is still possible. Most of the rain will be from mid-morning to mid-afternoon for Long Island with a slightly earlier start and end for western Long Island and slightly later for eastern Suffolk. I have included wind maps and future radar images below.
- More rain sometime around later Tuesday into at least Wednesday morning before a more sustained colder period begins.
- The 10 and 15 day snow maps below look a little better, but still not a good enough signal for Long Island to have any confidence. Our better chance will likely begin after the 16th with still a decent chance to get a snowstorm by Christmas.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Sunny with highs in the upper 40's. Wind nearly calm in the morning and then out of the SW at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Increasing clouds with lows in the low 40's and then rising after 10 PM to around 50 degrees by morning. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow: Very windy with rain mostly from around 9 AM to 3 PM with a passing heavier shower possible in the late afternoon or early evening. Highs in the upper 50's. Wind out of the SSW at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 to 45 mph, highest along the south shore and east end.
Tomorrow night: Becoming mostly clear and very cold with lows in the low 30's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the NW then W at around 10 mph in the morning and 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Wind generally light and variable at around 5 mph.
Tuesday: A chance of showers in the afternoon with a better chance at night with highs in the mid 50's. Wind out of the S at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday: Showers likely, especially in the morning, with highs in the mid 50's. Wind out of the WNW then NW at around 10 mph.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40's. Wind out of the NNW at 10 to 15 mph.
- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island
- 2nd image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles
- 3rd and 4th images: 10 and 15 day snow maps from the Model Blend and Euro ensemble mean
- 5th and 6th images: Future radar for tomorrow at 1 PM and 5 PM
- 7th and 8th images: Max wind gusts through tomorrow from the NWS and HRRR model
- 9th image: Long Island snowfall matrix from the Euro ensemble members
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