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System in the middle of the ocean on its way to stealing the name Gaston:

If that occurs, the future potential hurricane in the Caribbean would be named Hermine.

Also the new GFS ensembles are very interesting, and I will post them soon.

See previous post for the full update!

The following is from the NHC:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic, about 950 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so before upper-level winds become less conducive later this week. The system should move generally northward or northeastward while remaining over the open waters of central subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms while moving westward at 15-20 mph. Gradual development of this system is forecast during the next several days as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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