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Update on the storm and wind/rain for L.I., warm then cold, and comments on snow and next week:

- Nicole officially made landfall as a 75 mph hurricane in Vero Beach at 3 AM with a massive area of tropical storm force winds.

- Rainfall amounts have continued to decrease for Long Island and should generally between 0.5 and 1.25 inches. Wind gusts late tomorrow night into very early Saturday morning will be mostly in the 35 to 45 mph range with some gusts as high 50 to 55 mph in the normally windier locations near the water out east and at elevation, and you will hear the wind roaring overhead from the low-level jet. Thunderstorms are possible here, but much more likely as you head south where there can be a tornado as well (see last image for severe thunderstorm map for tomorrow into early Saturday morning). I have included some future rainfall maps below so you can get an idea of the coverage and timing of the rain, but it does look like it will end on Long Island between around 7 AM and 9 AM on Saturday from west to east, and then the sun will come out and temps will be in the low 70's with a breeze.

- The models haven't converged yet on the storm for either the middle or end of next week, but there is an increasing chance of some snow away from the coast in New England/NY. I may post more about that later. The cooler weather starts Sunday and the chilly/cold weather starts Monday with highs in the upper 40's on Long Island.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 60's, except low 60's in eastern Suffolk. Wind out of the WSW at 5 mph in the morning and then out of the SW to S at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Increasing clouds with lows in the low 50's. Wind becoming nearly calm after midnight.

Tomorrow (Veterans Day): A chance of widely scattered morning showers with increasing coverage in the afternoon from west to east with highs in the upper 60's. Wind nearly calm early in the morning and then out of the SSE at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: Periods of showers/rain, moderate to heavy at times with a slight chance of a thunderstorm, humid, and very windy with lows in the low to mid 60's. Total rainfall of 0.75 to 1.25 with locally higher amounts possible. Wind out of the S at 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph with some gusts up to 50 mph for eastern Suffolk.

Saturday: Rain ending between around 7 AM to 9 AM from west to east with the sun coming out a couple of hours after the rain ends, and it will be breezy and warm with highs around 71 degrees. Wind becoming out of the W at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a morning shower with highs in the low to mid 50's. Wind out of the WNW at 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Sunny with highs in the upper 40's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny in the morning with increasing clouds in the afternoon with highs around 50 degrees. Wind out of the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers with highs in the low to mid 50's. Wind out of the N at 10 to 15 mph.


- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd image: Map for Tropical Storm Nicole

- 3rd image: Projected rainfall for the few days from the WPC

- 4th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS Model Blend

- 5th to 8th images: Future radar from the NAM for tomorrow at 1 PM and 9 PM and Saturday at 5 AM and 8 AM

- 9th image: Max wind gust map from the NWS

- 10th image: Severe thunderstorm potential for tomorrow into early Saturday morning













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