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Update on the tropics with a potential hurricane and the L.I. forecast with a cold front coming:

- Invest 91L, in the southern Caribbean Sea, should become a tropical storm by tomorrow night, and it should have just enough time to become a Cat 1 hurricane before making landfall this weekend in central to northern Nicaragua. It will very likely be named Julia since the tropical depression in the eastern Atlantic is not expected to become a named storm. After landfall in Nicaragua, the Euro ensembles are kind if split, although most of them seem to have it crossing into the Pacific; however, a small number of them do have it head northwest and emerge into the Bay of Campeche.

- Finally, the clouds will move away this morning and we have a mostly sunny stretch for the next 7 days. A strong cold front will come through tomorrow late afternoon into early evening for Long Island with a slight chance of a scattered passing shower or some sprinkles. The wind will abruptly shift to a northwest wind with gusts to 25 mph, and then temperatures will pretty sharply drop from the low 70's in the late afternoon into the mid 40's later at night. Highs will only be in the upper 50's on Saturday, but it will gradually warm up a little each day and make it into the upper 60's the middle of next week. The next cold front will then likely come through later next week.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Clouds early and then mostly sunny with highs mostly in the low 70's, but upper 60's for the east end. Light wind out of the NW then W at around 5 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with some patchy fog possible after midnight with lows in the mid 50's. Wind out of the SW at around 5 mph.

Tomorrow: Patchy fog possible early and then mostly sunny with highs in the low 70's, but a little cooler for the east end. Wind out of the WSW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the W at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: Slight chance of a light passing shower early in the evening from the cold front, otherwise partly cloudy and breezy and becoming sharply cooler/chillier with lows in the mid 40's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and much cooler with highs in the upper 50's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Sunny with highs in the low 60's. Wind out of the W at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Monday (Columbus Day): Sunny with highs in the low to mid 60's. Wind generally out of the W at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny with highs in the mid 60's. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's. Wind out of the NW at 5 mph in the morning and then out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.


- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd image: Overview of the tropics from the National Hurricane Center

- 3rd image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days

- 4th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles

- 5th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS Model Blend









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