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Warmer solution overall, but an interesting slight snow possibility emerges for the secondary storm:

- We have the weak system for this morning bringing some rain and wet snow showers to Long Island and snow for southern New England (see current radar at 4:40 AM in the 3rd image), and the sun will come out on Long Island by late morning into early afternoon.

- Regarding the late-week storm, the models have trended warmer with the snow being farther north at higher elevations of northern NY/New England. For Long Island, while there may be a shower Thursday afternoon, it's mostly a Thursday evening into Friday morning rain event.

- The interesting slight possibility that has emerged is that a secondary storm forms along the cold front and brushes eastern to central sections of the northeast with snow. The Canadian model has the secondary storm farther east and only affecting Maine with snow, but the Euro has it bring snow to western Long Island and most of New England for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Also, now 6 of the 50 Euro ensemble members are showing it bringing an accumulating snow to Long Island, so while it's a low chance, it's what I will be watching closely today into tomorrow.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Scattered early to mid-morning light rain or wet snow showers and then mostly sunny in the afternoon with highs in the low 40's. Wind light and variable in the morning and then out of the NW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear with lows in the low 30's in Nassau and around 30 degrees in Suffolk. Wind out of the WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

Tomorrow: Partly sunny overall with more clouds late with highs in the low to mid 40's. Wind out of the WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy with lows in the low 30's in Nassau and around 30 degrees in Suffolk. Wind out of the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny overall with more clouds late with highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: Cloudy with a 30% chance of an afternoon shower with highs just above 50 degrees. Wind out of the ESE at 5 to 10 mph. A steadier rain likely arrives in the evening and lasts through the night with breezy conditions.

Friday: Rainy and breezy in the morning and then mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower with highs n the low 50's. Wind out of the S then SW/WSW at 15 to 20 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a slight chance of afternoon showers with highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 20 mph.


- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd image: Projected storm locations/strengths at 1 AM Sunday from the Euro ensembles

- 3rd image: Current radar at 4:40 AM

- 4th to 7th images: Projected snowfall through Sunday from the Model Blend, Euro ensemble mean, Euro, and GFS

- 8th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member

- 9th and 10th images: Projected temperatures for Long Island












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