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Hurricane Irma and the Latest Tracks From the GFS and European Models


Hurricane Irma is still a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds with gusts as high as 150 mph, and it is still 8 to 10 days away from a potential United States landfall. While track uncertainty increases greatly beyond 5 days, let's look at what the GFS and European models are showing beyond that time-frame.

The GFS run from overnight has Hurricane Irma slamming into the Maryland/Delaware region as a Category 4 hurricane, which is a southward shift from the previous run, which had a direct landfall on Long Island, NY. However, the GFS ensembles have shifted the other way. Instead of showing a Florida impact, they have trended north, showing a wide range, but with an average track towards North Carolina.

The European model run now shows landfall in South Carolina as a Category 4 hurricane, but the ensembles generally show the hurricane coming up the coast.

The bottom line is that the entire east coast from southern Florida to Cape Cod should closely monitor this storm in the coming days.

The following image is from the GFS and it shows landfall in the Maryland/Delaware region on September 10th:

Image from tropicaltidbits.com

The following image shows the GFS ensembles:

The following image from the European model shows landfall in South Carolina on September 11th:

Image from tropicaltidbits.com

The following image shows the European ensembles:


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