Category 5 Hurricane Irma Continues on Deadly Path Towards Florida. Hurricanes Katia and Jose Also F
Hurricane Irma continues as a strong Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph with gusts up to 220 mph. While some variations in intensity can be expected as the hurricane undergoes eye wall replacement cycles, Irma is expected to remain a dangerous Category 5 hurricane on its path through the Bahamas towards southern Florida.
Hurricane Irma has already left a path of death and destruction on some of the islands of the Lesser Antilles, such as Barbuda, St. Martin, and St. Maarten. The storm also brushed Puerto Rico and is now headed WNW towards the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahama islands.
The overnight models runs continue to show southern Florida in the path of Irma; however, there are still variations among the models and within the models (ensembles). The GFS continues to make the turn to the north east of Miami and has eventual landfall in South Carolina. The Euro makes the turn later and takes Irma directly over Miami and hugging the coast while heading NNW towards the Georgia coast. The UKMET, which is another very reliable model for tropical systems, makes the turn even later, and has it affect the Florida Keys more and then come close to Miami, but entering from the SW of Miami.
In addition, Hurricane Katia is strengthening and will head towards Mexico. Also, Hurricane Jose has strengthened and is expected become a Category 3 hurricane. The Euro actually has it heading right for Miami 1 week after Irma affects the area. Obviously, there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the future path of Hurricane Jose.
If you're in the path of Hurricane Irma, please don't focus on one model. Please listen to the latest official warnings and evacuations. I will post the GFS location below as well as the Euro ensembles. There is still a wide variation in the ensembles, which shows that there is still uncertainty in the eventual path of Hurricane Irma.
The following image is from the GFS model, and it's showing Hurricane Irma to the east of Miami at 2 PM Sunday:
Image from tropicaltidbits.com
The following image shows the ensembles members from the overnight Euro run:
