The overnight run of the GFS model brought Hurricane Jose up to Montauk Point as it was weakening and then did a complete loop as a ridge of high pressure prevented its escape to the northeast. The Euro also trended closer to the coast, but still had it offshore, and it also had Jose loop around south and east of Long Island while weakening. However, many of the ensemble members from both the Euro and GFS have Jose turn left into the Virginia coast as the strong ridge of high pressure won't let it move farther north. So, while the exact track is still uncertain, there is an increasing chance of Long Island, especially eastern Suffolk, feeling direct impacts of rain and strong wind gusts from Hurricane Jose on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. I will be updating the "My Personal Weatherman" Facebook page as the new model runs come out today.
The following image from the GFS model shows Hurricane Jose just south of Long Island as of 8 PM on Tuesday:
Image from tropicaltidbits.com
t
The following image shows the Euro ensembles, which shows the great deal of uncertainty still in the final track:
