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***3:30 AM update: Chances slowly increasing for Kirk, Leslie, and then Milton to form. Kirk or Leslie to be the one in the Gulf. Isaac and Joyce are of no concern.***

- The GFS (2nd image) and GFS ensembles (4th image) are more bullish on the storm in the Gulf for next weekend into early the following week than the Euro and Euro ensembles (ensembles in 5th and 6th images). The NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center is now up to a 40% chance of tropical development within the next 7 days. The Canadian model (3rd image) also has a storm in the Gulf and the ICON has a weaker storm.


- The other orange area on the map will likely become a powerful hurricane but curve north early and not be a concern.


- Then there's a lower chance for the one behind it, but it needs to be watched as it could make it towards the Caribbean islands and be strong if it does develop. That could be Milton.


- I will update when I can, but will definitely have more updates from mid-afternoon through this evening.



- 1st image: NHC map


- 2nd image: GFS for next Sunday


- 3rd image: Canadian for next Saturday


- 4th image: GFS ensembles for the next 15 days


- 5th image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days


- 6th image: Full map from the Euro ensembles for the next 15 days









 
 
 

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